Description

This analysis provides a forecast of JASMY prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.009998 0.012053 0.014622 0.018142 0.022968 0.029559 3.963344e-02
2024-10-20 0.007396 0.009663 0.012860 0.017935 0.026312 0.040757 7.104288e-02
2024-10-27 0.006350 0.008775 0.012506 0.019143 0.031955 0.059539 1.422435e-01
2024-11-03 0.005721 0.008265 0.012468 0.020716 0.039137 0.089142 3.269351e-01
2024-11-10 0.005264 0.007893 0.012508 0.022397 0.047821 0.136661 9.616740e-01
2024-11-17 0.004713 0.007242 0.011868 0.022410 0.052512 0.182486 2.902076e+00
2024-11-24 0.004237 0.006636 0.011168 0.022023 0.055908 0.234499 1.329283e+01
2024-12-01 0.003737 0.005912 0.010094 0.020390 0.054207 0.255884 6.177257e+01
2024-12-08 0.003374 0.005397 0.009357 0.019401 0.054316 0.295530 1.577199e+06
2024-12-15 0.003139 0.005091 0.009005 0.019327 0.058067 0.391034 NaN
2024-12-22 0.002981 0.004911 0.008888 0.019867 0.065135 0.592658 NaN
2024-12-29 0.002815 0.004695 0.008656 0.020008 0.070730 0.870693 NaN
2025-01-05 0.002559 0.004300 0.008016 0.018908 0.070075 1.069775 NaN
2025-01-12 0.002381 0.004047 0.007674 0.018691 0.074831 1.717215 NaN
2025-01-19 0.002302 0.003984 0.007770 0.019972 0.091780 5.713931 NaN
2025-01-26 0.002243 0.003955 0.007944 0.021642 0.116901 75.005440 NaN
2025-02-02 0.002188 0.003927 0.008114 0.023430 0.151035 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 0.002074 0.003756 0.007874 0.023445 0.167023 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 0.001958 0.003569 0.007562 0.023033 0.177336 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.001812 0.003303 0.006996 0.021295 0.163656 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.001699 0.003104 0.006599 0.020246 0.159939 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.001625 0.002988 0.006421 0.020167 0.173344 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.001575 0.002924 0.006381 0.020741 0.203191 NaN NaN